WHY A FOOD-SUPPLY SHOCK IS REAL AND WHY THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD WAKE UP TO IT

WHY A FOOD-SUPPLY SHOCK IS REAL AND WHY THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD WAKE UP TO IT

A food-supply shock in Southeast Asia, including the Philippines, is now being forecast by Goldman Sachs. This is not mere speculation. It comes from one of the world's most respected investment research institutions, and that alone should be enough reason for our government to pay serious attention.

The question is: Has the Department of Agriculture (DA) already informed President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. about this looming threat? If it has, what concrete measures are now being implemented? If not, why not?

According to Goldman Sachs, the Philippines is among the countries most vulnerable because we are a net food importer. Worse, food already consumes almost half of the budget of many low-income Filipino families. If global food prices rise because of higher oil prices, more expensive fertilizers, and the expected El Niño later this year, ordinary Filipinos will suffer the most.

This is what economists call a "double whammy." Production costs increase because imported fuel and chemical fertilizers become more expensive, while agricultural output declines because drought reduces harvests. The result is predictable: higher food prices, higher inflation, and greater hunger.

This is precisely why we should begin reducing our dependence on imported chemical fertilizers. Organic fertilizers offer a practical alternative because they can be produced locally from biodegradable waste generated daily by our markets, farms, households, and food-processing facilities. Instead of becoming garbage, these materials can be converted into compost through mechanical shredders and further processed into nutrient-rich vermicast using African Night Crawler earthworms.

This is not an untested concept. The technology has already been successfully demonstrated by RU Foundry in Negros and Cebu under the leadership of Mr. Ramon Uy Sr. If local governments and farmers' cooperatives adopt this model nationwide, we could simultaneously reduce waste disposal problems, lower fertilizer costs, improve soil health, and lessen our dependence on imports.

Preparing for a food-supply shock also means diversifying what we plant. We should not rely solely on rice and corn. Indigenous crops such as sweet potato, ube, cassava, gabi, sorghum, and legumes are generally more drought-tolerant and require fewer external inputs. Likewise, intercropping, agroforestry, and integrated crop-livestock systems can make farms more resilient against climate and market shocks.

Another urgent priority is building a real-time national food information system. The government cannot manage what it cannot measure. Accurate data on production, inventories, weather conditions, logistics, and market prices would allow timely interventions before shortages become crises.

We have often waited until prices have already skyrocketed before acting. That reactive approach is no longer acceptable. Food security cannot depend on emergency imports every time global markets become unstable. We need a long-term strategy that strengthens domestic production and empowers Filipino farmers.

I sincerely hope that DA Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. immediately brings this matter to the attention of the President, if he has not already done so. If he has, then the public also deserves to know what preparations are underway.

The warning signs are already before us. The real issue is not whether the food-supply shock will happen. The real issue is whether we will prepare for it now—or wait until it is too late.

RAMON IKE V. SENERES

www.facebook.com/ike.seneres  iseneres@yahoo.com  senseneres.blogspot.com  09088877282/07-31-2027

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