COULD THE OIL CRISIS EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A FERTILIZER SHORTAGE?

COULD THE OIL CRISIS EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A FERTILIZER SHORTAGE?

Many people worry about rising fuel prices because they expect higher transport costs. Others fear that fuel supplies might run out. But there is a bigger concern that is rarely discussed: could an oil crisis eventually result in a fertilizer shortage—and eventually a food crisis?

The short answer is yes.

Most people associate oil with cars, airplanes, and electricity generation. However, modern agriculture is deeply dependent on fossil fuels, not only as energy but also as a raw material for fertilizers. In fact, the global food system would look very different without fossil fuels.

The key link is actually natural gas. Most nitrogen fertilizers—such as urea and ammonium nitrate—are produced using the Haber-Bosch process. In this process, hydrogen derived from natural gas is combined with nitrogen from the air to produce ammonia, the building block of nitrogen fertilizer. Because of this, natural gas can account for about 70% to 80% of the cost of producing nitrogen fertilizers.

When oil and gas prices spike, fertilizer prices also rise sharply. If energy prices climb too high, fertilizer plants—especially in regions that depend on imported gas—simply shut down because production becomes uneconomical. When that happens, farmers either reduce fertilizer use or shift to crops that require less nitrogen. The result is lower yields and eventually higher food prices.

In simple terms, an energy crisis can quickly become a food crisis.

Experts estimate that nearly half of the world’s population is fed because of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. Without them, global agricultural output would drop dramatically, which could lead to serious food shortages in vulnerable regions.

For the Philippines, the situation is even more delicate. Our farmers rely heavily on imported chemical fertilizers. According to studies by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, locally produced organic materials supply less than 1% of the nitrogen needed by Philippine farms. Meanwhile, roughly 90% to 95% of fertilizers used in the country are still chemical and mostly imported.

This makes our agriculture extremely vulnerable to global energy shocks.

To make matters more complicated, even fertilizer-producing countries sometimes impose export bans during crises in order to protect their own farmers. When that happens, countries like the Philippines could suddenly find themselves scrambling to secure supplies.

I am not in the habit of sounding an alarm unless I also see a possible solution. Fortunately, the solution may already be within our reach.

If imported synthetic fertilizers become scarce or too expensive, then we should accelerate the production of organic fertilizers. Organic fertilizers—from compost, livestock manure, crop residues, and bio-fertilizers—may not always match the immediate yield of chemical fertilizers, but they can sustain agricultural production when imports are disrupted.

The government already knows this. The Department of Agriculture has been promoting its Balanced Fertilization Strategy, which aims to replace up to 50% of chemical fertilizers with organic or bio-fertilizers in the coming years.

That strategy now deserves urgent attention.

This is why the issue should reach the desk of Ferdinand Marcos Jr.. If fertilizer supplies collapse, food production will inevitably follow. And we cannot simply rely on rice imports because transporting food across oceans also requires oil.

In other words, an oil crisis can trigger a fertilizer crisis, which can then trigger a food crisis.

Fortunately, the Philippines has many capable scientists, engineers, and agricultural experts who understand organic fertilizer technologies. Among those who have long advocated this approach is Mr. Ramon Uy, Sr., who first brought this concern to my attention.

My proposal is simple: the government should immediately launch a nationwide program for the massive production of organic fertilizers while simultaneously training farmers on how to use them effectively.

Preparing early may spare the country from future hunger, malnutrition, or—God forbid—famine.

After all, food security is not only about producing more rice. It is also about ensuring that the soil itself continues to produce food for generations to come.

This, is now my call to action: If you know President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., or if you know anyone close to him, please relay to him the urgent message that he should now order the entire government to IMMEDIATELY start the massive production of organic fertilizers and to start teaching farmers how to use it, to save our country from serious food shortages that could result in hunger, malnutrition and God forbid, famine.

RAMON IKE V. SENERES

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