DOUBLE RALLY AND DOUBLE WHAMMY

DOUBLE RALLY AND DOUBLE WHAMMY

U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies—particularly his imposition of tariffs on a wide range of imports—have long stirred global debate. For some, they are a strategic lever for protecting domestic industries. For others, they are a disruptive force in the fragile ecosystem of international trade. But one thing is clear: these tariffs are a double-edged sword, especially for countries like the Philippines.

For us, these policies could go either way. It could be bad if our exports become less competitive due to higher duties, but it could also be good—if we are able to take advantage of gaps left by other countries hit harder by U.S. tariffs. In other words, we need to look at both sides of the same coin.

Take coffee, for example. Imagine a scenario where another coffee-exporting country faces higher U.S. tariffs and at the same time suffers from climate change impacts—droughts, erratic rainfall, and declining yields. That’s a double whammy: one blow from policy, another from nature. Now imagine if the Philippines, blessed with better growing conditions and lower tariffs, can step in to fill that supply gap. That’s our chance for a double rally—a boost in production and a boom in exports.

But we cannot rely on luck or weather alone. We need a plan. A real strategy. I propose the creation of a Technical Working Group (TWG) tasked to analyze and navigate the intersection of global tariff changes and climate impacts. This TWG should include the Presidential Management Staff (PMS), NEDA, PSA, DA, DENR, DTI, DOST, DICT, DFA, and the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI).

Let’s be clear: the PMS has long been the President’s primary think tank, and historically, it worked closely with the Presidential Economic Staff (PES) and the National Computer Center (NCC). During the time of former President Ferdinand Marcos Sr., this triumvirate laid the groundwork for planning and decision-making. The PMS did political analysis, the PES did economic forecasting, and the NCC built the software systems. Now, the PES has evolved into NEDA, and the NCC has become the DICT. It’s high time we reunite this trio, this time powered by artificial intelligence.

We can use AI to predict where climate change will hit hardest, where tariffs create opportunities, and what products we should focus on exporting. It’s not about planting whatever we want, whenever we want, wherever we want. It’s about strategic, data-driven farming. What to plant. Where to plant. When to plant. All aligned with global demand and harvest cycles.

This is why I included the DENR in the TWG—to explore converting vacant mountains into food forests, capable of producing goods that other nations may no longer grow due to climate stress. I also included the DTI and DFA, because now is the time to pursue economic diplomacy with a clear focus on comparative advantage and competitive advantage. We must help exporters adapt and plan based on this shifting global terrain.

Moreover, DOST and DICT must play a vital role in embedding science, technology, and AI into our export strategies. Let’s also stop exporting raw materials we can already process ourselves. Value-added exports must be our path forward.

And what of the industries in other countries that are now suffering from this double whammy? Perhaps we can even invite their factories to relocate here, especially if we offer lower tariffs and better conditions. This, too, should be studied by the TWG.

Our success in this evolving global order doesn’t require us to win in everything—we just need to win in areas where we have the edge and strategically concede where we don’t.

In conclusion, this is not just about trade. It’s about survival and strategy. If we don’t act, we will be the ones suffering both the double whammy and the double rally—but in reverse. The time to act is now. Let’s not let this rare opportunity pass.

And one more thing: include the private sector, especially economic thinkers from the PCCI, so our strategies are grounded not just in theory, but in real business sense.

Because in the end, it’s not about avoiding the storm—it’s about learning to sail with the winds of change.

Ramon Ike V. Seneres, www.facebook.com/ike.seneres

iseneres@yahoo.com, 09088877282, senseneres.blogspot.com

05-31-2025

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